La nueva etapa de Japón: reflación, normalización y oportunidades en renta variable

 

De acuerdo con un artículo reciente publicado por J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Japón ha entrado en una nueva fase económica caracterizada por el regreso de la inflación, un crecimiento salarial más sólido y una recuperación de la demanda interna. Estos factores marcan un cambio significativo respecto a las décadas de bajo crecimiento e inflación reducida que caracterizaron a la economía japonesa.

Según J.P. Morgan Asset Management, la combinación de una política fiscal más activa y un proceso gradual de normalización monetaria por parte del Banco de Japón está creando un entorno favorable para la actividad económica. Al mismo tiempo, la debilidad del yen continúa respaldando la competitividad de muchas empresas japonesas con una importante exposición internacional.

En el mercado accionario, J.P. Morgan Asset Management mantiene una visión constructiva sobre Japón. Como muestra la siguiente gráfica, la debilidad del yen ha coincidido con un sólido desempeño de la renta variable japonesa, favoreciendo especialmente a las compañías exportadoras. En este contexto, el MSCI Japan y el TOPIX acumulan avances de 19% y 20%, respectivamente (en moneda local, al cierre de 27 de octubre de 2026). A su vez, el crecimiento de las utilidades corporativas continúa siendo sólido, impulsado por la demanda relacionada con inteligencia artificial, la expansión de la capacidad de semiconductores y la fortaleza de sectores como financieros e industriales. Los avances en gobierno corporativo y el aumento en los programas de recompra de acciones también siguen respaldando la creación de valor para los accionistas. Una eventual apreciación del yen, impulsada por una mayor normalización de las tasas por parte del Banco de Japón (BoJ), podría generar volatilidad en las empresas exportadoras; sin embargo, la correlación entre el USD/JPY y el MSCI Japón es menos negativa que antes, y las acciones ahora están respaldadas por otras tendencias estructurales positivas.

Fuente: FactSet y cálculos de J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Los datos corresponden a la información más

reciente disponible al 24 de agosto de 2026. La correlación representa el promedio de la correlación móvil de un año entre las variaciones semanales del tipo de cambio JPY/USD y los rendimientos del MSCI Japan.

Desde esta perspectiva, Japón sigue representando una oportunidad atractiva dentro de los mercados desarrollados para inversionistas que buscan exposición a tendencias estructurales de largo plazo y una economía que continúa mostrando señales de transformación.

Los inversionistas interesados en acceder a esta temática pueden considerar el JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF (BBJP), un ETF que proporciona exposición diversificada al mercado accionario japonés mediante una solución eficiente y de bajo costo. A continuación se incluye más información de este ETF:

Enlace a la página web de J.P. Morgan Asset Management Enlace

Fuente: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, “Japan Reflation Meets Normalization: Yen, Yields, and the Equity Appeal”, agosto del 2026.

 

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